The question is not whether the Golden State Warriors can beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, in which the Dubs have been installed as prohibitive favorites. Rather, the question is whether the Warriors will beat the Warriors.
Only on occasion this year has Golden State resembled the team that won two of the previous three league titles. Too often the Dubs have looked a little bored, a little banged up and a little burned out as they have negotiated their fourth straight elongated postseason. Too often they have looked as they did in the first half of Game Seven of the Western Conference Finals against Houston, spraying the ball all around the gym, defending indifferently and spectating as they were beaten to loose balls.
They redeemed themselves with an explosive third quarter, which has become their trademark. I would suggest, however, that they appear to believe they can turn it on whenever they damn well please, a very dangerous habit for any club, much less one about to face LeBron James.
Almost as troubling was the fact that too often against the Rockets the Dubs abandoned their elegant passing and cutting (hat tip to Houston’s Spandex-tight defense, at least in part, for that) in favor of isoball, a shocking development for a team that has for so long played so beautifully.
Time and again Kevin Durant would cradle the ball in the right midpost, his back to the rim as he sized up his defender. And time and again he would turn middle, into traffic, and force up a bad shot.
Again, shocking to see Golden State reduced to a Stone Age style. That they won the series anyway is due as much to Chris Paul’s hamstring injury as the belated decision to finally put the ball in Stephen Curry’s hands, which seemed to smooth out the entire operation.
Had Paul been available in Game Seven, however, he surely would have been able to avert the slow-motion trainwreck that derailed the Rockets. Rather than settling for the first bad 3-point attempt they could find — they missed a stunning 27 in a row from the arc in one stretch, and went 7-for-44 from there in all — they could have ridden his mid-range mastery for a time. And that might have made all the difference.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr insisted the other day that another injury — that to the knee of one of his players, Andre Iguodala, in Game Three — was no less significant, that Golden State would have won the series in five games if the former Sixer were available.
Maybe so. Iguodala is the ultimate glue guy — an extraordinary defender and ball-handler, and opportunistic scorer. He offers ballast to a roster that is shockingly imbalanced, listing six centers among 16 players (if you count Jordan Bell, more a forward, as basketball-reference.com does). That’s a luxury nobody can afford in this small-ball era.
Iguodala will also miss at least Game One of the Finals, meaning the Dubs will have one less body to unleash against LeBron at the defensive end.
Another chink in the armor, then.
I would not be so bold as to say that any of this will cost the Warriors the series. But I would assert that it’s going to make it more difficult than it might appear to be right now.
Dubs over the Cavs (and themselves), then. But figure that it will take at least six games.